mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. with all due respect to donald trump, who said that jeb bush -- you said that ben carson makes jeb bush look like the energizer bunny, we thought we would help with a little illustration. [drum beating] ♪ john: you like that? that drum beating? happy national concussion day, sports fans, which means the nfl season is getting underway. the lineup on our show -- we have biden, boehner and bernie. but first, the big, big brawl. for the first time in his campaign, donald john trump is

under siege. in the past 24 hours, he has taken four body blows from ben carson, carly fiorina, bobby jindal, and jeb bush. let's come from the religious angle, courtesy of dr. carson. [bell] dr. carson: one of my favorite bible verses. proverbs 22:4. it says, "by humility and the fear of the lord are riches and honor in life." that's a very big part of who i am. humility and the fear of the lord. i don't get that impression with him. maybe i am wrong. i don't get that impression. mr. trump: i never heard faith was a big thing until just recently, so i do not even know about ben carson's faith. all of a sudden, he becomes this great religious figure.

i don't think he's a great religious figure. i saw him yesterday quoting something on humility. it looked like he memorized it two minutes before he made the quote. don't tell me about ben carson. john: speaking of the washington post, carson backed off his comments and said he did not want to get into a gladiator fight with trump. probably because trump would destroy him and dragged his corpse on a chariot through the streets of midtown manhattan. that is just one front of the war on trump. on the second front is carly fiorina. it is all about how "rolling stone" quoted the donald. he said, "look at that face. would anyone vote for that?" can you imagine that, the face of our next president. she is a woman, and i'm not supposed to say bad things, but really, folks, come on. are we serious?" turns out trump says he meant carly fiorina's personna. but that doesn't really matter at this point. here is how carly fiorina herself responded on fox. ms. fiorina: i am not going to

spend a single cycle figuring -- wondering what donald trump means, but maybe i'm getting under his skin a little bit because i'm climbing in the polls. john: now on the part three. a lot of this happen twitter today, kind of donald trump's arena. bobby jindal fired off a series of tweets saying trump does not stand for anything except himself. that he is egomaniacal and a narcissist. it was all part of a speech that jindal gave at the national press club. [bell] governor jindal: i want to say what everybody is thinking about donald trump but afraid to say. the idea of the donald trump act is great. the reality, however, is absurd. he's non-serious. he is a carnival act. donald trump is shallow. he has no understanding of policy. he is full of bluster. he has no substance. he lacks the intellectual curiosity to even learn. issues don't mean anything.

-- mean anything to him. policy ideals are not important for him. he is for donald. donald trump is a narcissist and an egomaniac. we know that only a small person needs to constantly tell us how strong and powerful they are. the real danger is that ironically, donald trump could destroy america's chance to be great again. the joke's on us. he is laughing all the way to the bank or the polling station. pt barnum was never more right than right now. john: later in the day, donald trump replied in a statement that treated jindal like a has been. "he did not make the debate stage and therefore i've never met him. i only respond to people who register more than 1% in the polls. i never thought he had a chance and i have been proven right." now, finally part four. moments ago, jeb bush on cnn, first reacting to general --

jindal's comment that he is not a serious candidate, and then reacting to trump's comment about carly fiorina. mr. bush: i agree. i think that mr. trump as the front runner needs to be treated like all candidates and needs to share what his experiences are to be president of the united states, what his ideas are, and so far he has not been serious about that. i do not see how over the long haul that you can insult your way to the presidency and not the nomination, either. this disparaging of women is deeply troubling. it just doesn't make any sense to me. john: so, mark, you are down there on washington, d.c., you have been watching all this unfold. trump has had a lot of scraps during this campaign, but he has never been under fire in quite this way. let's talk about each of these and how they might he individually or collectively different. let's start off with the ben carson flat. -- flap. mark: i disagree with the privacy is under siege.

although, each of these has a distinctive quality. on carson, right now, a lot of people in the establishment are skeptical that trump and carson will end up as the nominee. but if you look at the key polls, these guys are one and two. in most of them, they are way ahead of everybody else. for once, trump is fighting with right at his level. these issues of faith, if eventually carson, ted cruz, and others convince voters in iowa and south carolina that trump is not a man of faith, it will have power for them. but i don't think this round did it, particularly since carson backed off. john: when i said under siege, all i really mean is the notion that trump is fighting a multi-front war. he has not been taking this much incoming all at once. i think you're right about the carson. the truth is, carson, although he is kind of a distinct, he is someone that -- and indistinct political figure, he is someone that republicans like. even when he was attacking

trump, he comes across as kind of mild-mannered, that we know he is capable of acerbic rhetoric. getting into a fight over religion is dangerous territory for trump. one of the places where trump seems most inauthentic is on religion. moving on, let's talk about the carly fiorina thing, because i think this may be the one where he is in the most danger. tell me what you think about that. mark: he is in the most danger on this one. even though with the megyn kelly thing, there have been other instances where the question about mr. trump's attitude towards women -- i think this is a one apparel. lotas a lot to carol -- a of [peperil. you see leading republican voices, consultants, others speaking out about what he said. and it does make it possible that again, in iowa, this could create a huge gender gap that could be a problem down the road. john: look, this is an issue where you have got, the republican party recognizes it has a problem with female voters to begin with. if trump gets cast as a

misogynist by the women of the republican party, that will , i think, effectively foreclose the ability he would ever have to get the nomination. i'm not saying he is there yet, but between this and the megyn keli thing, he is starting to get kind of close to that territory. so, let's talk about jindal and jeb. what you think about those two fights? mark: i think the jindal thing is obviously going to be chalked up by most as an attempt to save his candidacy. but he is doing better. in iowa he has moved up. he has gotten high favorables. it will be fascinating at the debate next week. a lot of times in politics, you see candidates fight in public and then they get to the debate and they are back in the green room and palling around. it is going to be fascinating to see with all these candidates, with the exception of carson. fiorina, bush, gentle -- bobby jindal. jindal will not be in the main debate, but he will be there at

the same time. will they pal around with trump or will this public animus, public disapproval extend to how they treat him on the debate stage but also off. john: i have been predicting i thought this debate next week was going to be a fireworks display. today makes it think it even more so. i'm curious -- mark: i'm edging in your direction on that. john: thank you very much. do you think jeb is happy to have all this company in attacking trump, or do you think he preferred to be the loan trump attacker? john: one of the leading -- mark: one of the leading debates right now is, ist good or smart to be the one to take down trump? i think the bush campaign felt they had to do what they were doing. you still see people like scott walker, marco rubio, john kasich staying out of this. i think at this point, there is strength in numbers for most of these campaigns to be a voice to try to rally the party against him. even though right now, you could argue that trump's being big is helping people like jeb bush, helping people like ben carson.

john: i've got to think that jeb is happier to not be the lone voice out there anymore. let's move on. as promised, we will get to biden, bernie, and some other stuff after this word from our sponsors. ♪ ♪

mark: at this point, every republican presidential candidate is dealing with the donald. one of them, scott walker, has been the most trumped gop'er today. in the run-up to the second republican debate, walker's campaign is trying to convince the chattering class that he is far from dead, despite his falling poll numbers and a series of unsteady walker's statements that have shaken his supporters. today at eureka college in illinois -- walker claims he is so big, so disruptive that you might call him a wreaker of certain havoc. governor walker: to wreak havoc on washington, we need to have a

-- we need leaders with real solutions. array catacomb washington, we need to have a leader in this country who has actually been tested -- to wreak half-baked -- havoc on washington, we need a leader who has actually been tested. mark: so, john, this is a part of walker having a serious offense before the debate to reframe, recast and restart the campaign. do you think they have a solid comeback plan? john: i think they have a comeback plan. and the notion of trying to make specific promises, like repealing obamacare, tearing up the iran deal -- he has got a plan. i'm not sure that it is a serious comeback plan in the sense he has fallen so far, it will be hard given all the other noise, it will be hard for him to claw himself back to the position he was in a few months ago. mark: scott walker, like hillary clinton, has a bigger problem with elites than he does with voters. make no mistake -- he has dropped with voters. he has dropped in a lot of polls, including in iowa.

he still has a chance to come back, but today's performance didn't do much to convince elites, donors, etc. that he has a plan to come back. this next debate is massively important for him. john: everybody has a lot at stake in this debate next week. i cannot think of a person who has more at stake than scott walker. he has fallen so far. i cannot imagine he is not going to join the chorus now and try to take on donald trump directly on that debate stage when we get out there to california next wednesday. dings]ngs] --[bell john: all right. as joe biden keeps us waiting like the world's most stubborn jack-in-the-box, he arrives in gotham city. a new poll shows hillary clinton with a lower number than bernie sanders in iowa. the beats numbers are also pretty good, even though he's not formally in the race. mark, joe biden is here on clinton's home turf, palling around with all kinds of

liberals. is this just a coincidence, or is the vice president trying to stir the pot? mark: he has been moving around a lot of places. i think he is doing everything he can to keep the options open. make no mistake -- if he decides to get in, he is not going to overtake her instantly, but he is formidable because he has vast national political experience. coming into new york, doing colbert, hanging out with the governor of new york state, this guy can do a lot of stuff and he can do it with a better touch that hillary clinton. john: i think there is something about, he has been stirring the pot, but there is something about the vividness of the incursion onto her home turf. standing up there with cuomo. all these people. this is seen as hillary clinton's home and base. for him to be traipsing around here at this moment when he is supposed to be deciding about whether he will take her on, it just seems like political theater at a high level to me. mark: the more he plays on a major league stage, the more he

is that guy the party would say if hillary clinton falters over the e-mails, he is the person that the party would say, we have a major league i. -- guy. we can plug him in. nothing more majorly than coming to gotham city, colbert, all of these platforms that, again, not everybody in the world can do. joe biden can do them. john: absolutely right. it would be really funny if bill de blasio endorsed him. that would be great. we will be right back with two of the smartest people in the whole wide political world after this. ♪ ♪

john: a lot of movement in the numbers today. no, i am not talking about the stock market. that's a financial joke for our friends in the building. i am talking about the political polls. here with us are two people who have been waiting all day to talk about them. we have anne's ulcer -- ann

selzer and bloomberg politics contributor sasha eisenberg. republicanabout the side. what does this big poll tell a sack of -- tell us? ann: it tells us trump is marching forward. every time the pundits say -- it shows him winning by a bigger margin. he's up, carson is up, bush is down. and then the rest of the field is holding its own. mark: between trump and carson, number one and number two, trump leads across the board with every demographic and type of group, but what can you say about where carson is closer to trump on gender or age or education? are there areas where carson is competing more than trump? ann: women used to be carson's core. he actually won over trump in some of the polls we have been working with. trump now has an 11 point lead among women. he's making up that distance.

trump is doing better with college graduates than he used to. those numbers have increased. carson continues to be the core republican, the core conservative, but he does not win. john: if you are donald trump lookingign, and you are at these numbers and other numbers, and trying to translate that into tactical imperatives on the ground in iowa, what you -- what are you thinking right now? sasha: i wonder whether you need a ground game. the assumption is that trump needs to spend the fall developing a traditional looking campaign with the field organization that will identify his voters and mobilize them on caucus day. the nature of his coalition that is diffuse and varied makes it difficult to use the statistical tools the campaigns want to predict their supporters. and that is what you want, which -- so you know which doors to knock on and which phones to call. the statistical as abuse of a carson supporter are looking far easier to define than trump's.

-- attributes of a carson supporter are looking easier to define than trump's. as the months go on, there will be a huge risk for trump. people who look like trump supporters in september will not be on caucus day. do they even want to bother with the ground game. or is this national media persuasion strategy enough to carry him through? mark: i want to ask you one more thing about this national poll. we have three big candidates, trump and carson on the republican side, bernie sanders on the democratic side who are trying to bring a lot of new people into the race. polling will be a challenge -- are we polling the right people? what does this poll say about enthusiasm for trump and enthusiasm for carson? ann: enthusiasm for republicans generally is waxing, enthusiasm for democrats generally is waning. byyou look at it candidate candidate, trump has a very high number saying that they feel enthusiastic if he were to become the nominee.

this is among all republicans, and about half as many are saying they would be angry or upset. carson, his numbers are more tilted toward the positive. jeb bush is not somebody we have been talking about. he has more people saying they would be angry if he turned out to be the nominee than saying they would be enthusiastic about it. mark: i think they are not angry , but frowny faced. ann: upset. john: sad face. sad octopus. ann, i want to stick with you because you are an iowa expert. there is a quinnipiac poll focusing on iowa. what do you see in those numbers? ann: they included joe biden and have taken them out -- taken him out. when he is included, he is sapping the strength all of hillary clinton and bernie sanders has a one point lead. you take him out of the equation, and she is holding onto a three-point lead. his being in the mix right now is bothering hillary clinton a little bit more than bernie sanders.

mark: in this poll and in the iowa poll, sanders is gaining. whether biden is in the race or not. what can you tell us about why sanders has moved into a tie with clinton in this poll? ann: two things. he wins two out of three people under age 35. those are likely to include a lot of people who have never caucused before. so he is enlarging the base, and that is helping him there. i think the other thing is that people right now are not focused on who can win in the general election. they are focused on, who aligns with my values? that's what they are paying attention to. and that's why bernie sanders is doing better. if it were the reverse, people were caring about who wins, hillary clinton might be polling stronger than she is now. sawtek statistical pie , a -- sasha statistical pie , a with sanders and clinton in iowa. a more disturbing picture for

hillary clinton much more optimistic for bernie sanders. again, in terms of if you are in iowa right now, what does hillary clinton have to focus on getting done over the course of the next three or four months up to the caucuses, and what does bernie sanders have to focus on? sasha: the burden is more on sanders. first of all, as ann mentioned, it is not a challenge for pollsters. it is a challenge for campaigns if you have people that have never caucused before. both campaigns are working off a list that they acquired from the state party. people who caucused before. that is your core source of information on who is likely to go out. that is the starting point for all of your field programs. so, if you are building your support that is showing up in polls with infrequent voters, you are starting with a huge informational disadvantage. the other challenge we see for sanders is, unlike and the republican caucus where it's one vote, one man, one person, one vote across the state, democrats see their delegates allocated by precinct.

if you have, as we might imagine sanders does, support that is concentrated in college towns and parts of cities where white liberals are, there is not a huge advantage to running up the score in those places. he could have 40% of the vote, but he could find that is disadvantageous geographically. something the obama campaign did in 2008, they got college kids vote -- college kids to vote where they lived. there is only so much you can do if you find your supporters are in iowa city or aimes. that will be a challenge for sanders as he tries to diversify his base of support. mark: and a lot of the candidates in iowa who were down the polls on the public and side -- in the republican side are saying, look at our favorability. the rubio campaign or the walker campaign. is that something they can cling to and say, people like us in iowa? ann: we know that anything can happen. if you do not have a good likability factor, you're going to be in trouble. the fact that there are several

candidates with very high likability factors, they have to figure out how to parlay that into actual votes. why choose this person that you are just not as ginned up about even though you like them? there is a difference between who do you date and who do you marry. right now, there are a lot of people they would date. [laughter] john: certainly true. we will come back and have sasha. he knows more about that than anyone. thanks for being here. we will be right back. ♪

♪ mark: we are always live on the internet 24/7. this program airs twice a day, 5:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. eastern. john: sometimes it is also on 11:00 p.m. all kinds of times. all day long, day and night.

lots of fun. mark, we will see you back here tomorrow, i hope. until tomorrow, i say for both of us, sayonara. ♪ this is a great place to work. not because they have yoga meetings and a juice bar. because they're getting comcast business internet. comcast business offers convenient installation appointments that work around your schedule. and it takes- done. - about an hour. get reliable internet that's up to five times faster than dsl from the phone company. call 800-501-6000 to switch today.

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